There’s a reason I don’t like to read reviews before I watch the movie (besides avoiding any spoilers, of course). The critics’ opinions and ratings might affect my own, and I want to make my own untainted decision.
But is that even possible anymore, especially online? When hype travels at the speed of a virtual thumbs up, does social influence have enough bias on our opinions to direct our next click?
Maybe so. A study published in Science journal suggests that online commenters can be swayed by the herd – and may even get trigger-happy with the ‘like’ button.
For the study, a trio of business scientists collaborated with an unnamed social news aggregator “similar to Reddit.” On such sites, users can upvote or downvote links and comments shared by others. Sinan Aral of MIT’s Sloan School of Management, et. al, automatically voted on more than 100,000 comments over five months, randomly voting each one up, down, or – for a control group – not at all.
Would these altered ratings affect how users judged the comment?
You bet. It seems a social thumbs-up inspires more liking. In the study, upvoted comments were 32% more likely than the control group to get even more upvotes. When social influence is as as quick as a click and as obvious as a thumbs up, it’s easy to see how our opinions might be swayed by this “herd effect.”
But it’s not just copycat behavior, because the same thing happened with the downvoted comments – no, they didn’t spark a chain reaction of downvotes. They sparked upvotes in rebuttal, neutralizing negative sentiment in what researchers called a “correction effect.”
“People are more skeptical of negative social influence,” Aral said. “They’re more likely to ‘correct’ a negative vote and give it a positive vote.”
Well, that’s a nice thought: Positivity is contagious online, and even negativity sparks more liking. But could this bias toward positivity actually come back to bite us?
In the wrong hands, it could. If profiteers fix their online ratings, they can use our mindless, sheep-like liking to spark “irrational herding” and inflate their positive reviews. Haven’t you ever wondered if that product review was really posted by an objective user?
“These positive ratings also represent bias and inflation,” Aral said. “…Stock bubbles represent a positive herding, and they can be dramatically bad in the wrong context.”
Of course, social influence swayed us long before we had social networks to speed it. So once again, the moral for consumers is: Don’t believe all the hype you read online. Some things really are popular just because they’re popular – not necessarily because they’re good.
But for marketers, there’s another valuable lesson. Clearly, there’s a lot of power in crowd-based opinion aggregators – enough to sway and inflate public reactions. Social influence is undeniable online, so if you can get one person talking about your brand, more will join. And maybe it doesn’t even matter what they’re saying about you; as long as they’re saying something, it can end up being positive – or at least neutral – in the end.
>> Want to get people talking online? Wonder how a few likes can turn into even more likes on your social sites? Contact Bantamedia today to pump up your presence. >>
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